Higher and higher we rise in the Top 30, and the chances of Olympic glory and WTCS success look all the stronger.
In this section, WTCS medallists and Continental champions abound. Any of them could be an outside runner to make the Olympic podium or the overall WTCS podium. Some of the difficulty in separating the names arises from whether they are likely to have a couple of outstanding performances or if they are likelier to be consistent across the season. Perhaps more than anywhere else in the ranking, the balance between who would win on any given day and who would perform best over the course of the year is tested to its greatest extent.
There will always be an element of subjectivity in these rankings so feel free to disagree with any names or suggest your own in the comments below.
12) Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal MEX (2023: unranked)
Tapia broke out in a startling way last year as she soared to the silver medal at WTCS Yokohama. In Japan, she enjoyed a flawless race. She made the breakaway out of T1 after a strong swim and then rode with an elite front group. In the early stages of the run, she seemed to slip behind and a personal best WTCS finish (outside the medals) looked to be on the cards. However, it turned out she had paced her effort perfectly and she crushed the second 5km.
Later in the year, she became the Americas champion, claiming the first international win of her career. While any Continental Championship title is a big moment, the significance of that result may actually lie in the overcoming the small mental hurdle that determines whether an athlete can win such races. Now Tapia has managed it, she will be able to bolster the self-belief that she can win further international races.
Bronze medals also followed at the Pan American Games and the Brasilia World Cup. On the World Cup scene, she also finished 4th in New Plymouth at the start of the year.
Tapia thus got through an extremely long season. Her levels, though, did not waver.
While her Yokohama performance was her best on the WTCS level, she was consistent throughout the Series, finishing 10th in Cagliari, 14th in Montreal and 16th in Abu Dhabi. In the end, that was enough to put her 10th overall.
As she finds her feet at the very top, it might be a year too soon to expect a tilt at a top-5 in the overall WTCS or an Olympic medal. After Yokohama, though, it would be no surprise to see Tapia spring further shocks in 2024.
11) Jeanne Lehair LUX (2023: unranked)
Lehair came agonisingly close to claiming a first WTCS medal in 2023 as she finished 4th in Montreal and 5th in Cagliari. Further results of 11th in Paris, 11th in Hamburg, 12th in Yokohama, at which she delivered one of the fastest runs of the season, and 13th in Pontevedra cemented her in 8th overall in the Series.
Lehair’s running speed in 2023 should not be understated. In Cagliari she blasted the eighth fastest Olympic distance split ever in the women’s Series.
Her fast running also carried her to the European Championships crown (albeit in a race converted to a duathlon). At the end of the year, she also added a 3rd place in Miyazaki to conclude her season with a maiden World Cup level. That result could prove quietly important as Lehair builds towards more world level podiums.
In many respects, Lehair had a similar season to Tapia and not much separates them. Both became Continental champions and made the top-10 of the WTCS overall after consistent campaigns. Both also won a maiden World Cup medal. While Tapia managed to win a WTCS medal, Lehair was twice close and showed herself to be one of the best runners in the sport.
The difference between them was minor but Lehair edges ahead for now.
10) Kate Waugh GBR (2023: 24th)
Waugh’s stock took a major hike at the end of last season as she won the silver medal at the WTCS Final in Pontevedra.
The 2022 World U23 champion had enjoyed a strong WTCS season, finishing 6th overall after recording results of 5th in Yokohama and 7th in Paris. Pontevedra, though, was on a different level. After setting up her race perfectly, she found herself fighting for a medal and kept a cool head to finish the job.
In many ways her Pontevedra showing called back to her perfect race tactics that saw her win the World U23 title. More than anything, Waugh is a racer. While she has few weaknesses in the constituent disciplines themselves, it seems her mental edge is what currently elevates her over many of her contemporaries.
Waugh faces a battle to make the British Olympic team. If she does, Pontevedra showed that she could be a dark horse for a medal in Paris. If she does not, she could equally contend for a high overall WTCS finish. Indeed, there is a scenario in which Waugh manages both.
After the form she showed in 2023, few will fancy betting against her anytime soon.
9) Laura Lindemann GER (2023: 11th)
In the 2022 WTCS Lindemann had best results of 4th, 5th and 6th. Last year, she converted her presence in similar positions to two bronze medals, in Hamburg and Paris, respectively.
Her performance at the latter was particularly noteworthy. At the Olympic Test Event, Lindemann confirmed her status as a bona fide medal contender at the coming Olympic Games.
Her bronze was her first WTCS medal outside of Germany and her first over the Olympic distance. Both bode well for Olympic success. Moreover, she has the experience of two prior Olympic Games to call upon. As a result, she is a legitimate Olympic medal contender this summer.
Given that Hamburg is the last WTCS before Hamburg, she could have a golden summer. She has been prolific in Hamburg and another double medal winning season could be on the horizon.
All things considered, then, Lindemann’s WTCS medals and Olympic prospects make her a top-10 athlete. However, she will need to develop greater consistency to become an overall WTCS threat and rank higher.
8) Taylor Spivey USA (2023: 7th)
“The sole reason she has not been ranked higher here is her lack of medals in 2022.” That was our justification for putting Spivey in 7th at the start of 2023. Considering that she claimed two WTCS medals last year – she earned bronze in Abu Dhabi and Cagliari – how can it be the case that she has dropped a slot?
Factor in another 4th place finish in Yokohama and the fact that she matched her overall Series position of 4th, and the picture looks a little awry. Spivey could easily rank higher.
The shift has both external and internal causes. On the external level, all bar one of the athletes ahead of Spivey has won a WTCS race. Furthermore, the winners have done so since the Tokyo Olympics. On the internal side, with respect to Spivey’s results, she did not maintain her form across the season.
Although injury was a factor, she went on to finish 9th in Montreal, 7th in Hamburg, 10th in Paris, and 13th in Pontevedra. Had she maintained her form from the start of the season (and won another medal) she likely would have ranked higher. Equally, the same hindrance of not winning a race would remain.
If Spivey brings her early 2023 form to 2024, she should be a shoo-in to make the American Olympic team. However, that point itself encapsulates the difficulty in putting her higher. Pretty much everyone ahead can be discussed as a potential Olympic champion whereas Spivey is still in the conversation of first making the team.
She is without question one of the most skilled and well-rounded triathletes around. Notably, her top three performances in 2023 came through breakaways. Without them, though, she was often out-run and only once made the top-8 at a WTCS race.
Ultimately, Spivey is too good to not be in the top-6 but at the same time those in the top-6 have all had the upper hand over her. It’s a paradox and that seems to be the only way to elucidate how an improved Spivey yet lost a place.
7) Flora Duffy BER (2023: 1st)
Duffy is the biggest test of trust when it comes to compiling these rankings.
Taken on the value of her form in the second half of 2022, you would be hard pushed to move her down from her top spot. In the intervening period, she has not done anything to necessarily justify being moved down; if you are only as good as your last race, as the adage goes, Duffy is literally the best around.
However, she has not raced in over a year. Persistent injury problems have kept her away from the elite scene and new players have risen in her absence.
Duffy entered the Paris Test Event but did not race. The chance to exploit the course familiarisation spoke to her ambition of defending her Olympic title, a feat no woman has achieved. In all likelihood, she will be gunning for the top of the sport this year and has essentially devoted the past year to recovery and preparation towards that goal.
Moreover, prior to her injury she had won two straight world titles, a situation slightly different to, say, Vincent Luis before his 2023 was ended by injury. As a result, Duffy should have the benefit of the doubt. However, her age and history come into the equation.
We have been here before. Duffy’s 2018 and 2019 campaigns were hampered by injury and in 2020 she was beaten to the world title in Hamburg. She turned it around in 2021 and 2022 but the recurrence of a long-lasting injury re-introduces the doubt that everything will be resolved in the coming months and that she will be back at her best.
With Duffy, then, do you take her current three race WTCS winning streak or her 14 month absence from the sport as the guiding metric? Given the uncertainty, perhaps she cannot be placed ahead of the more recent race winners at this stage.
